Should We Continue to Work Hard or Just “Invest” All Our Money in Shitcoins, I mean Crypto?

Entrepreneurs all over the world are currently facing an existential crisis: why bother to sit at the grindstone creating or selling anything when you can simply just buy cryptos named after a meme dog and retire a year later after it skyrockets 1000000%.

It’s a fair question, however considering that a crypto bet has the same chance of taking R1 to R1 million than it has taking R1 million to R1 it’s not that simple. Now over here we have focussed on tried and tested ways to make money, dignity through hard work which is what South African youth needs. If you been here a while you might have noticed something conspicuously absent: we didn’t get on the forex/crypto/stock trading bandwagon not only because they are very risky starting out but because they take a different mindset to succeed than the vast majority of South Africans. If you have a quick buck mentality (read greedy or desperate) you will get slaughtered in the market as you increase your risk to match the reward you are looking for.

My position is clear: if you want to trade in memecoins or whatever there is nothing wrong you are an adult and make your own choices, but remember trading is brutal and you bear the full consequences of your actions and there is no recourse if you lose all your money and end up living in a van down by the river. Under the new plan I mentioned previously that once you cover your living expenses then you can gamble whatever excess profits you have into memecoin cryptos. Here is how I would go about it (I am only referring to using money you can afford to lose).

When you are buying a coin that is worth a fraction of a cent, you don’t trade with your head or your heart. You trade with your asshole, once you buy it you forget about it (like the poop out your anus), don’t day trade for incremental gains don’t set boundaries, floors ceilings nothing. Buy it and forget about it, check on it only if a year or so or if it starts blowing up on the news or social media then you need to know you have to make some kind of move (or simply leave it). I go deeper into my rationale below, if you are not used it to the stress of being up 100% might make you sell prematurely when it could go up 10000000000000000000000000000000%

When you come back after a year, it will either be worth zero, the same, small gains or you will be a millionaire or billionaire.

Can shit coins rise be predicted? Tips to make and save money.
A coin that has made recent headlines is the coin named after the meme dog or doge dog shiba inu. It increased some million percentages from a year or so ago. Most of the numbers are so ridiculous I’m not sure if they are real or not (I didn’t even bother to check whether the zeros are at the correct places). Now two things must be noted.  This coin usually traded at R0.0000000001 since launch or something around there, basically a smidge above zero. And why would it be worth more, there is nothing special about it, it is a off-the-shelf whitelabel coin with the only thing going for it a meme name. You will notice two bumps in its “price”, one caused by spammers (known as a “pump”) trying to artificially inflate its value, one publicity stunt by giving away free crypto to a prominent member of the crypto community and the other by Elon Musk’s dog. Don’t laugh I am being serious.

Here was the initial pump “cute puppy coin”:

The May peak below was when Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin was given 500 trillion SHIB tokens (half of the circulation) as a publicity stunt, he subsequently “burnt” 410 trillion or $6.7 billion worth of the fairy dust money.

Now I would reckon, if you have a website or blog and notice spam comments and trackbacks from a nothingburger coin, this will likely be before normies are going to get on it, you yourself can pump and dump but I said we holding or HODL as they say. Now the initial bump caused by the shiba inu spam was significant (I think as high as R0.0000001 but in the bigger scheme of things wasn’t much as it skyrocketed to R0.000711 when the world found out that Elon Must owns a shiba inu dog.

Now shiba inu a generic altcoin with a meme name has tried to justify its existence (to find utility for it) by launching shibaswap where you can use the coin for various useless things. Now shibaswap was launched in July 2021 (around the time of the height of the spam campaign) during this time (before we heard about Elon’s dog) the coin traded at around R0.000100. This implies that the stratospheric rise and “value” of the coin is tethered to Elon Musk’s dog. Now what happens when his dog dies, are you going to have to pay his vet for inside info so you don’t lose your shirt? Or more importantly what happens when Elon decides that shiba inu is no longer his favourite dog and he prefers a Pekingese? What happens then? Stop laughing.

Making money by predicting shitcoins
If we look at the way Elon Musk has been moving crypto in recent years, it thus seems prudent to have a look inside his mind to see what he will be talking about next. Go through his old high school yearbooks, koshuis photos, is he eating droewors? Then buy BiltongCoin etc.

Preventing yourself from losing all your money
If you bought shiba inu just after the spammers started promoting it (which is when I first heard about it) you will be up I think around 635% (from R0.000098 to R0.000711). I personally would take those gains and run away screaming, and I don’t mean screaming like I did when Liverpool came from 3-0 to win the 2005 Champions League I mean screaming like I am being chased by Freddy and Jason. That is the reason I said leave it for a year and don’t look at it. What person with the temperament of a human and human tendencies would be able to sleep when they have millions in shitcoins that can go to zero at any time? Yes you can decide to ride it to the moon but it requires nerves of steel as you can be brought back to earthly soil in a moment.

Now shiba inu is likely worth what it always traded at  R0.0000000001 which is basically worthless. Whether we can even call the post shibaswap  launch R0.000100 “fair value” or whether it will go back to R0.0000000001 I don’t know (then again nobody does). The spam pump that took it out of this pit, came suspiciously close to the launch of shibaswap but it was likely Russian or Ukrainian actors who bought it for a fraction of a fraction of a cent and tried to hype it.

Now if it all doesn’t make sense is because it doesn’t. Trading shitcoins is no different than tasseography (reading tea leaves), its shitcoins it has no intrinsic value its pure speculation bordering on gambling like going to GrandWest or buying a lotto ticket or an Ithuba scratch card. But if you consider the way most South Africans trade forex I think they will find memeshitcoins to suit their tea leaf trading style. “Trade” at your own risk but remember only the risk profile of gambling can return those returns (and we all know what the chances of hitting the jackpot are).

As for those desperate and greedy people remember my wise words:
Brokers have made the calculation that a lot of South Africans are struggling even suffering and have been so for a long time, some suffered under apartheid and now they are suffering under the corrupt and incompetent ANC, they are sick and tired of being sick and tired. Easy pickings to be taken advantage of. It is not hard to convince someone of something that they want to hear especially when they just want the misery to end. The problem is that every type of virtual trading requires discipline and a lot of research and up to the minute data (that is why a Bloomberg terminal cost R330 000 a year each or R600 000 for two). Despite what people tell you there is no way to read a shitcoin graph, people who who use strategies like elliott waves to do technical analysis are wasting their time, it’s not a rational market, buyers and sellers are not thinking rationally. People will buy even if they like the coin’s name or logo and will sell do buy Maggi 2 minute noodles or to cover rent (that is if they don’t live in their momma’s basements). So they not selling because of fundamental reasons that can be predicted and analysed.

This is even riskier than trading forex and people have been putting their retirement savings into forex and ended up forever poor, people gave up their jobs and put their packages into forex and ended up poor and unemployed, entrepreneurs have been plowing their company profits into forex hoping for superior returns only to lose it all and having to work overtime just to keep the business afloat. People have seen money they worked decades for evaporate overnight as they chase impossible returns. This you hardly hear about but believe me they outnumber all the “successes” you see on Instagram (and most of that are not real either with rented properties and cars or living way above the means that forex delivers).

And not just crypto and forex, even stocks for those putting their children’s college funds into Easy Equities, many people buy stock for whatever reason, while professionals spend hours pouring over financial statements but as we have seen it don’t matter:  with frauds like Steinhoff South Africa’s top investors got a return of 5c on the rand. Had you invested your R1 million retirement in Steinhoff you would have been left with R50000 (enough to sustain you for a month in Cape Town). Same thing happened in Germany with Wirecard. The top investors were sufficiently diversified to manage it but the man in the street ended up being hit the hardest.

I always preach  any type of trading is risky, when you are greedy and desperate the risk is amplified. The only way and I mean only way to double your investment in the least risky way is to do so by your own efforts doing physical work but people don’t like to hear that. It must be noted that shitcoins are pure speculation and not an investment. So Caveat emptor.